Nadal's ability to keep improving has to be daunting to all of his opponents, but Federer might find some solace in one improvement of his own: his backhand seems more potent--if he goes after it. Roger hit a surprising number of backhand winners in the match. They just weren't enough to make up for the tentative backhands that fell short and set Rafa up for easy winners, his first serves in at only 51%, or several devastating streaks of unforced errors. In the third-set tiebreak, Roger made two unforced errors on the forehand and then double faulted to lose the set. In the fifth set, Roger looked deflated, almost handing the match to Rafa with only six winners and 14 unforced errors.
Part of the explanation for Roger's lapses, especially in the fifth set, may have shown itself when his turn came to speak at the trophy ceremony. He was so overcome with emotion, he couldn't speak through his tears, and he had to stand aside until another try a few minutes later. Roger obviously cares deeply about not disappointing his fans and reaching the status many expect of him as the greatest tennis player of all time. Too much emotion can easily get in the way of executing your strokes, especially if your strokes require the precise execution that Roger's do. Rafa has much less to worry about in that regard, because he hits with so much topspin, he can just rip away at the ball and count on the spin to bring the ball down into the court. Under pressure, Rafa's shot selection and execution are simpler than Roger's, and his emotional makeup is probably much simpler, too. Rafa's dominant emotion seems to be a ferocious competitiveness, whereas Roger seems to carry a more complex mix of thoughts and feelings, one of which is a growing doubt about his ability to beat Nadal.
Rafa has exactly the right attributes to give Roger trouble like no one else can. First and foremost is his topspin, which he uses relentlessly to make the ball jump high to Roger's one-handed backhand. Second is Nadal's left-handedness, which puts his stronger side, the forehand, against Roger's weaker side, the backhand, in cross-court exchanges, and, more importantly, allows him to make great use of the topspin-slice serve to make Roger hit one-handed backhand returns not only high, but also very wide on the ad side. That explains one of the more striking statistics in their Grand Slam match history: Federer's very low percentage of break points converted. Most of those break points occur at 30-40 or ad-out, where Nadal serves on the ad side. If Nadal were right-handed, he could use a twist serve to kick the ball high to Federer's backhand, but he wouldn't be able to place it nearly as wide, and that would give Roger more opportunities to step around the backhand and return with his much stronger forehand. If Rafa were right-handed, he would have nowhere near such a good record against Roger.
With the Australian Open won, Rafa has a real chance at the very rare calendar-year Grand Slam, which only two men, Rod Laver (twice) and Don Budge, have ever accomplished. Rafa is undefeated at Roland Garros and the reigning champion at Wimbledon. Roger has a good chance to avenge last year's loss at Wimbledon and to defend his title at the US Open, but he'll need to find some new tactics and make a few stroke improvements so that he'll have reason to believe that the balance of power has changed. Here's one idea: If Rafa can learn to flatten out his forehand for the hard courts, perhaps Roger can learn to rip a heavier topspin, so that, under pressure, he doesn't have to measure his stroke so precisely. Roger should also experiment with returning from a little farther to his left, to get more chances at a forehand return, and/or farther back, to meet the ball lower when he does have to hit a backhand.
Let's hope the rivalry between Rafa and Roger pushes both of them to continue to improve, especially Roger, so that their rivalry continues to be a great one.
