Rafa had a tough time with Fernando Verdasco in a spectacular, five-set semifinal, whereas Roger won in straight sets against Andy Roddick in the other semi. It's unlikely Nadal will be tired, though. No one is fitter. Versasco was able to hurt Rafa with extremely powerful, deep and/or sharply angled forehands and a very high percentage of first serves well placed with good pace. Federer should be equally effective (although with a lower percentage in) on the serve and place his forehand perhaps even better, but Roger usually doesn't hit forehands with as much pace as Verdasco.
Rafa knows very well, though, where Roger is more vulnerable than Verdasco: on the high backhand. As all one-handers do, Roger struggles to handle backhands above his shoulder, where hitting topspin is extremely difficult and producing a low, driving slice isn't easy either. Roger may want to try what Andy Murray did so successfully in winning last year's US Open semifinal against Rafa: receive serve farther back. Nadal has tremendous kick on his serve, and almost always tries to kick it up on Roger's backhand side. Roger often misses or hits a weak return, which Rafa then puts away with his ferocious groundstrokes. Although Murray, like Verdasco, has a two-handed backhand, he returned Rafa's serves from far enough back to allow the ball to fall from the peak of its kick. The disadvantage of this tactic is that it's very difficult to hit an aggressive return from so far back, but if you return deep, which is easier to do when you meet the ball at a stronger, more comfortable height, you can get into the point in a reasonably neutral position, which is much better than having to defend against Nadal's reply to a return that lands short.
As Rafa tries to stretch Roger's backhand upward, both with kick serves and with his hugely topspun groundstrokes, Roger will try to stretch Rafa wide, especially with the serve, but also with his often outstandingly accurate groundstrokes. When he can hit a strong approach shot, Roger will also try to finish points at the net. The key to the match will be Roger's sharpness. Rafa is almost always in good form, but Roger can vary from brilliant, as he was against Roddick, to befuddled, as he was for the first two sets against Tomas Berdych in the fourth round. Let's hope both guys are in top form, in which case we'll see an incredible match and perhaps a historic one, as Roger seeks to tie Pete Sampras's record of fourteen Grand Slam singles titles.
